There are plenty of ways to parse the revenue collections over the first 10 months of the current (2014) fiscal year. Officially, the general fund numbers are 0.5% below the most recent (December 2013) forecast. But they are 1.7% below the 2013-2015 budget based targets. Neither percentage warrants great concern, representing in dollars $61 million (0.5%) and $194 million (1.7%), respectively. But the last two months of fiscal year 2014 will be worth noting for the purpose of identifying trend lines. The March and April numbers came in very close to the December forecast, but the problem is the December forecast adjusted the predictions downward from the April 2013 forecast on which the budget is based.
Last month’s actual collections were 6.4% below the original forecast. So there is a need for the May and June collections to be close to the revised forecast amounts, or else the budgeting going into the second fiscal year of this biennium will get trickier. If those collections drop off, the forecasters and budget-makers will be looking at less than desired numbers going into the new budget making session next year. Sales tax revenues are the real key since they make up 49% of the collections. The sales tax numbers are not bad, but are very modest, showing 1.5% growth over last year. Corporate revenues remain stalwart, 14.5% above target for the year. On the other end, gaming remains down, 7.1% below target. All in all, the budget is in an alright place, but there is a lot to be determined in the coming months as far as expectations going into the next biennium.
Stay Tuned for Real Interim Action on Tax Issues
Nothing is happening just yet, but things are in the works: This will not be an ordinary interim for tax matters. The Pence administration is currently busy organizing a major event for next month. The initiative, dubbed the Indiana Tax Competitiveness and Simplification Conference, is set for June 24. It will be opened by Gov. Pence and feature a few nationally recognized speakers. There will also be panel sessions on a variety of tax subject areas. Panelists will have a work group type format. This is a “by invitation” conference. More details will be reported next month.
Dovetailing the Governor’s conference to some degree will be the Blue Ribbon Commission established by SEA 1-2014. It is expected that his body will begin to take shape in the coming weeks.
The Legislative Council has recognized the commission (referenced as the Commission on Business Personal Property and Business Taxation) in conjunction with the other interim committees sanctioned for interim activity (via Council Resolution 14-01). Senate Pro Tem David Long will name one of his Senate colleagues as the chair and Speaker Brian Bosma will name one of his House colleagues as the vice chair. Four other legislators will likewise be appointed, while the Governor will have a designee. And the remaining seven members will be laypersons representing various interested parties, including the Indiana Chamber, the Indiana Manufacturers Association, the Realtors Association, agriculture and local governments.